Because its never too early, lets talk a little about the next presidential election. And, there are no logical choices for either party’s candidate, for the first time in a very long time. It seems as if Clinton vs McCain is the most likely matchup. The Republicans are going to have a very difficult time running a nominee who can mobilize the Religious Right and yet still have a hope of winning the general election. The Democrats have the problem of either replaying previous elections (many of which they lost), or running governors no one has ever heard of. Still, as far as I can tell, here are the contenders:
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton, Senator from New York
Pros: Name recognition; reasonably moderate and yet still could draw out the minority and women’s vote; Can tap into the positive association that many Democrats and independents have of the Clinton years; she’s young and vibrant, well-spoken, and extremely politically savvy.
Cons: She’s a Clinton, and a Yankee, and a woman. The trio means she will have no way of competing in any of the traditional red states, whatsoever. Her presence on the ballot could will guarantee a high turnout of Clinton-haters, even if the Republicans run a moderate candidate.
Conclusion: Has to be the Democratic front-runner, and is also the one that Republicans are wishing for–but be careful what you wish for, cause you just might get it.
John Edwards, Former Senator from North Carolina
Pros: Name recognition; a moderate, good looking family man who is well-spoken, and with just enough of a drawl to sound like a Southerner without being labeled dumb by Northerners; was the candidate that many Democrats, in retrospect, wish they had run in 2004; puts the Carolinas and Virginia into play.
Cons: He is out of the spot-light, and has no definite way back into it; his wife was diagnosed with cancer after the last election, which will divert his attention and resources (or make him look callous if he does not).
Conclusion: If he can maneuver himself into national prominence within the next year, he could be a force to be reckoned with. Otherwise, expect him to fade into history.
Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico
Pros: Popular, Hispanic governor, reasonably moderate, reasonably young; almost guarantees the Democrats New Mexico, and gives them a better than normal shot in Arizona, and possibly Florida as well.
Cons: The average resident of Ohio probably has difficulty picking New Mexico out on a map. No name recognition, and he’s never been vetted at a national level (i.e. no one knows what skeletons may lurk).
Conclusions: Could do very well in the primaries, but unknown governors from small states are always a crap shoot. An Hispanic presidential nominee could be very intriguing.
John Kerry, Senator from Massachusetts
Pros: Name recognition; if the second Bush term goes poorly, he can carry the banner of “what might have been”.
Cons: He just lost in what should have been a winnable election, meaning that many Democrats will be bitter at him, and many Republicans and Independents will have already made up their minds. Not clear that he can win any more electoral votes the second time around. He never clearly established a theme in his last campaign (other than not-Bush), and therefore it is hard for voters to imagine what the road not taken might have looked like.
Conclusions: Not gonna happen.
Joe Lieberman, Senator from Connecticut
Pros: Name recognition; he’s a well-known, moderate Senator who it is difficult for anyone to hate; reputation for being a maverick in the Senate which can play well.
Cons: No one really loves him either; he makes Gore seem emotive, many liberal groups are indifferent towards him (at best), and he’s from a blue-state and doesn’t bring anything to the table their either.
Conclusions: Could never win the Democratic Primary, but if he did would make for an intriguing candidate and some dull televised debates.
Mark Warner, Governor of Virginia
Pros: Young, popular, moderate Senator from a populous Southern State. Similar to Edwards, but he also has a current political job.
Cons: Zero name recognition, never been nationally vetted.
Conclusions: If Edwards does not run, look for Warner to fill that spot as the token young Southerner, and a potential dark-horse if Clinton and Richardson stumble.
Al Gore, former Vice President
Pros: Name recognition; association with the Clinton presidency; beat Bush in 2000 by some measures; has done a better job since leaving public office of appearing less wooden (if you haven’t seen his appearance on SNL a couple years ago, it is one of the funniest things you’ll ever watch).
Cons: Lost to Bush by the one measure that matters most; Democrats accuse him of running a poor campaign in 2000; he’s been out of the public eye for a couple years; and he will inspire the anti-Clinton fanaticism among Conservative Republicans.
Conclusions: Probably not going to happen, but if he did run I think he could make a very strong showing. He played the role of “Nixon, 1960″ in the 2000 campaign, if he wanted to he could very well play the role of “Nixon, 1968″ in the 2008 campaign.
Republicans:
John McCain
Pros: Moderate, well known, nationally popular, strong foreign-policy credentials, solid reputation for being a maverick, from a Southwest battle-ground state.
Cons: Will have a very hard time getting the support of the Religious Right, especially after his participation in the recent judicial compromise, which means he will have a real problem winning the primaries. His nomination would make possible a third-party candidacy of a Pat Robertson or Pat Buchanan type.
Conclusion: Could be a very interesting election if he runs; his nomination would put virtually every state into play, both red and blue, unless he makes some very strong overtures towards Southern, religious conservatives over the next couple years.
Bill Frist, Senate Majority Leader from Tennessee
Pros: Name recognition; reasonably moderate on fiscal issues and strongly conservative on social issues; reasonably young, good-looking, and articulate.
Cons: He walks a very fine line trying to maneuver compromises through the Senate on the President’s not especially popular programs, and still maintaining his loyalty to the Administration. It makes it very difficult to stake out strong, individual positions upon which to build a presidential campaign. His overtures towards the Religious Right recently have been a little clumsy (his support for justice Sunday, and some of the comments on Terri Schiavo, for instance), which does not bode well for his ability to please both independents and social conservatives simultaneously.
Conclusions: If he runs, he could easily win the Republican primary, but there is a reason that no Senate Majority Leader has ever been elected directly to the Presidency.
Rick Santorum, Senator from Pennsylvania
Pros: Young, good-looking, conservative fire-brand. He’s the darling of the Religious Right, and would get conservative Christian turn-out in droves, both for the primary and the general election.
Cons: He is way too conservative to win many independents; many of his comments have verged on (and been interpreted as) homophobia, and he inspires as much hatred on the left as he does loyalty on the right.
Conclusions: He could win the primary, but not the general. Look for him to talk up a run for President to scare the Republican moderates a bit and then to run for Senate majority leader when Frist retires.
Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida
Pros: Name recognition; reasonably moderate governor of a populous battleground state; could inherent the Bush election team, if he wanted to.
Cons: Carries the baggage of the Bush name without being as skilled a political operator as his older brother; his fortunes will ride heavily on his brother’s legacy, which is not looking particularly good at the moment. He was the big loser, politically speaking, in the Terri Schiavo case, which hurt his credibility with both moderates and conservatives. He has not been nationally vetted.
Conclusions: He is exactly the type of person that the Republicans would love to nominate; except the fact that he’s a Bush makes him a problematic candidate, and he needs to do something to win back the support of the Religious Right. Given all that, I doubt he will run.
Condoleeza Rice, Secretary of State
Pros: Name recognition; she’s a conservative, well-spoken African American woman; very strong foreign policy credentials, and she has not taken many strong stances on social issues which allows her to define herself on those issues. Carries the Bush Administration seal of approval.
Cons: Her popularity is intrinsically tied to the fate of the Bush presidency, in general, and the fate of Iraq, in particular, which is problematic. Being an African-American woman will not play well with many white conservative men, who make up the vast majority of the Republican party (note, I am not accusing all Republicans of being racist, but many old segregationists still do make their home in the Republican Party, and will have a hard time getting enthusiastic about a black woman for President).
Conclusions: If she decided to run, her fate depends on the Iraq war. If the war goes well and Iraq stabilizes, she is extremely difficult to beat. If Iraq remains a quagmire, she’s in serious trouble in the general election.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California
Pros: Name recognition; moderate and popular (at least outside of California); puts California into play (at least if he can stabilize this tailspin he is in right now).
Cons: He cannot Constitutionally run; has some serious skeletons in his closet, when it comes to groping women and possible affairs; is on the record as pro-choice.
Conclusions: If the Constitution were ever amended, he would make an interesting general election candidate, but I cannot see the Republican Party nominating a pro-choice candidate. I could see him trying to go the route of his buddy Ventura, however, and running as an independent, especially if the Republicans nominate Santorum (or someone like him).
George Pataki, Governor of New York
Pros: Benefits from the 9/11 aura; reasonably moderate governor of a Democratic state, and would put New York into play.
Cons: He is pretty unpopular in New York right now, and his post-9/11 handling of that situation has gotten very low marks. He does not have strong pro-life credentials.
Conclusions: If he runs, he loses, but he probably won’t last long enough in New York to run.
Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City
Pros: Benefits from the 9/11 aura; extremely moderate and puts New York into play; very popular in a lot of places that have only vaguely heard about him.
Cons: Some serious skeletons–he left his wife and married his mistress while Mayor of New York; he’s pro-choice.
Conclusions: People like to talk about Giuliani as an interesting nomination, but I just cannot see it happening.
Mitt Romney, Governor of Massachusetts
Pros: Moderate, well-spoken, and a good administrator.
Cons: Name recognition is a problem; being from Massachusetts will play very poorly in the primaries; he’s not taken a strong pro-life position; he has associations with the Massachusetts gay marriage decision.
Conclusions: Would never, ever, be nominated, and would lose if her were. But, look for him to run anyway.
Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House
Pros: Name recognition; intelligent, well-spoken, thought-provoking and controversial. To many fiscal conservatives, he represents the best of the Republican Party from the mid-late 1990s. Good, but not great, foreign policy credentials. Has done a good job of maintaining a reasonably high profile since his retirement from public life.
Cons: Divorced his wife in favor of his mistress; was forced out of his position as Speaker because of his inability to reign-in his own tongue; will definitely draw liberals to the polls en masse.
Conclusions: He seems to want to run for President, but I doubt he could last through the primary.
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