One primary down, fifty-some to go. (Territories get delegates too, although not many on the GOP side of things.) Michelle Bachmann (sixth place) has quit the race, Rick Perry (fifth place) did some soul searching before deciding to carry on, skepticism about New Gingrich (fourth place) is growing, while Ron Paul (third), Rick Santorum (second) and Mitt Romney (first) are all media darlings for the day. And all because 120,000 Republicans took the first steps towards selecting 25 delegates (out of more than 2200 nationwide), whose votes at the national convention are not actually bound by last night’s results. So what’s the big deal?
Focal points. Or, as the press likes to call it, “momentum.” See, most Republican voters aren’t especially wedded to any of the candidates–and no, that’s not just a criticism of the perceived weakness of the GOP field, that’s always true in any election. For most Republican voters, the purpose of the primaries is to select the guy who is a) most palatable to them, and b) most likely to beat the Democrat (in this case, Obama). Moreover, most voters don’t want to vote for a loser.
So what happens? Voters choose their most preferred candidate who they think has the most likely shot of winning. The purpose of the Iowa caucus, the New Hampshire Primary, and the other early contests is simply to establish the focal points, or the favorites. The delegates being distributed so far are meaningless. But if a candidate can’t do well in Iowa or New Hampshire, voters in Texas and donors in California are likely to stop believing in that candidate’s ability to convince other voters and donors to support him/her. Bachmann lost Iowa and had no shot in New Hampshire or South Carolina–which meant that donors and voters who might have preferred her are going to believe that she cannot possibly win, and will therefore abandon her for other candidates.
That is the extent of the meaning of last night’s events. The press will talk a lot about exit polling and issues, and try to make a big deal out of perceived shifts in the liberal-ness or conservative-ness of the average Iowa voter who showed up. I would treat such analysis with plenty of skepticism. After all, only 120,000 people voted, almost all of them significantly more conservative and politically active even than the average American Republican. You’d get a better representative (and equally large) slice of the American populace if you polled everyone at an average Michigan vs. Ohio State football game.
So congratulations to Romney, Paul, and Santorum. Just don’t count your delegates until their hatched.
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