leftfielder.org

“All politics is local.”  It’s a classic political dictum, but one that we often choose to ignore, especially with regards to autocratic regimes.  The idea is simple: politicians want, more than anything, to stay in power, and virtually everything that they do while in office is geared toward that end.  Makes perfect sense–except that, when it comes to foreign policy, we are all too eager to forget it.

The worst offenders these days are the neo-conservatives: Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bill Kristol and the rest of the Weekly Standard/Fox News crowd, etc.  The neo-conservatives, for instance, tend to believe both of these fallacies: that autocrats rule without a selectorate, and that most people, most places, are fundamentally pro-American.  (A selectorate is simply a group of people whose support is necessary to maintain power.)  These two assumptions led them to believe, among other things, that: the American troops would be “greeted as liberators” in Iraq; the Iranian government needs only a push before it will fall in the face of a pro-Western popular rebellion; popular elections are a panacea for religious fanaticism and anti-Americanism in the Middle East; autocrats are inherently unstable and unpopular; etc.

The problem is that both assumptions are false.  Dictators have short life spans if they don’t have the allegiance of the military, the police, and either the populace or the economically powerful.  And while an especially brutal ruler may be able to control one of these groups through fear, most of them have to be bought off.  Just look at Saddam Hussein.  There were lots of “winners” under Saddam’s rule: the military, especially the Republican Guard, the Baathists, middle class Sunnis, etc.  Hitler was extraordinarily popular among the middle classes and industrialists of Germany.  Kim Jong Il gives the North Korean military absolutely everything it asks for, which is why North Korea maintains one of the largest armies in the world. Dictators and autocrats spend just as much time worrying about keeping their selectorates happy as democratic leaders worry about reelection, and maybe even more.  After all, if George W. Bush becomes too unpopular with the American people, he can look forward to retirement on a ranch with a pension.  If Kim Jong Il becomes too unpopular with the military, he can look forward to an unmarked grave.  As for the assumption that most people, most places are fundamentally pro-American… well, at this point, I think we can dispense with that absurdity out of hand.

In short, the neo-conservatives have forgotten that all politics is local.  Virtually everything that any political leader does, in a democracy or in an autocracy, can be traced back to placating a constituency.  Remember this when you see the President of Venezuela lampooning President Bush.  Remember it when you see the President of Iran flaunt UN weapons inspectors.  Remember it when you see the President of France criticize American foreign policy.  Remember it when you see Chinese bureaucrats flaunting American human rights concerns.  And remember it when you see the Saudi Royal Family continue to try to play nice with both American diplomats and radical Islamist terrorist groups.  All of those people are simply trying to do their best to stay in power.  Anyone who says otherwise is selling something.