Obama’s True but False but (Probably) True Statement

 Posted by  2012 Election, Book Related, Business And Regulation, Environment  No Responses »
Mar 152012
 

There are often no easy answers to complicated issues.

In a speech today, President Obama once again asserted that “the United States has 2% of the world’s oil reserves, but uses 20% of the world’s oil.” The Washington Post’s Fact Checker took on this claim and found that it was “True But False”. If anything, the Fact Checker is understating the complexity of the situation. Let me explain… or try to.

The United States does consume, in any given year, roughly 20% of the oil that is extracted and processed in any given year. This may sound like a lot–and it is. As the Fact Checker notes, the United States has only about 4% of the world’s population.

It is also true that if you look at “proven” oil reserves–that is oil reserves which have been adequately surveyed and for which technology currently exists to extract it–then it is also true that the United States sits on roughly 2% of the world’s oil reserves.

Okay, so Obama is right so far; that’s the “True” part of “True But False”. Now let’s talk about the “False” part.
Continue reading »

A Haze of Disappointment

 Posted by  Business And Regulation, Environment  No Responses »
Sep 022011
 

President Obama announced today that he has ordered the EPA to abandon new proposed smog regulations, basically saying that they would be burdensome to industry at a time when the US economy can’t afford to take the hit. Maybe the timing isn’t right. But this is exactly the kind of environmental regulation that we need, because the costs of the new regulation are easily outweighed by the benefits.

Breathing smog-filled air is dangerous. It can cause asthma attacks and exacerbate existing lung conditions (bronchitis, pneumonia, emphysema, lung cancer, etc.). In the long-run, smog can do similar damage to the lungs as smoking.

Moreover, that all costs money. Smog causes people to go to their doctors more often, it can cause otherwise mild lung conditions to require hospitalization, it can slow recoveries which in turn increases the prescription drug costs for people with lung conditions. Heck, in the long-run smog can cause people to exercise less by making it harder to breath on high-smog days, and thereby contribute to the obesity epidemic. Smog is expensive.

So yeah, as a result of this regulation, a few coal plants will remain open, some others will be able to avoid buying new equipment to clean their smoke-stacks, and thousands of jobs around the country will be saved, for the moment. And the cost will come from the thousands of kids who end up in the emergency room from preventable asthma attacks.

Good environmental regulation saves money and saves lives. Maybe Obama is right that this particular regulation can be delayed until the economy is better. But if the delay is too long, we’ll all pay for it with out lives, or health, and our wallets. And we can’t really afford that either.

Determining A Man’s Worth

 Posted by  Abuse of Power, Disasters and Tragedies, Environment  4 Responses »
Jul 272010
 

How much money should a person make?

For most people, it’s a moot concept. For most white collar workers, the free market (in some loose sense) determines how much we get paid, perhaps marked up or down somewhat depending on a person’s negotiation skills. For most blue collar workers, their wages are determined by collectively bargained contracts. For the working poor, their wages are determined by the federal or state imposed minimum wage, or perhaps in some case by a minimum payment necessary to keep the employee fed and motivated.

But there are a lucky few people out there who get to set their own salaries, who don’t have to worry about the vagaries of the free market or collective bargaining. In particular, there are two news stories today that prompted the question I began with.
Continue reading »

Statistics and Global Warming

 Posted by  Environment  1 Response »
Dec 152009
 

Here’s a couple lessons from statistics that we would all do well to remember:

1) Anything that can happen, will happen, if given enough opportunity.

2) Most systems will, on average, converge to their “true” values if given long enough.

So, for instance, let’s think about climate change. Continue reading »

Global Warming Skepticism

 Posted by  Environment, Science  No Responses »
Mar 252009
 

There is an extremely interesting (albeit long) article in the upcoming New York Times Magazine (they post their lead articles online a few days before the magazine itself comes out) about noted scientist and global warming skeptic, Freemon Dyson. The article makes note of the fact that Dyson is widely considered to be one of the most brilliant thinkers of the last century, and is widely credited with an ability to incorporate data from a wide array of scientific disciplines. Dyson is also widely noted for his intense aversion to common knowledge. Reading that article, it occurred to me that Dyson is wrong for all the right reasons.
Continue reading »

 Older Entries
© 2012 leftfielder.org login Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha