Truth and Context

 Posted by  2012 Election, Book Related, Business And Regulation, Fiscal Issues, Obama Administration  No Responses »
Mar 202012
 

One of the things we discuss in Democracy Despite Itself is how voters respond more to what they think a candidate said than what a candidate actually said–which is exactly why it’s more important for candidates to sound slick and polished than to tell the truth.

Take the case of Rick Santorum and the unemployment rate. Santorum gave a speech yesterday in which he stated a deeply held belief–in fact, one that most independent economists would agree with (albeit with some caveats). Santorum argued that government in general, and the president in particular, doesn’t have much control over the economy, particularly major economic indicators like the unemployment rate or GDP growth. Santorum correctly argued that the president can’t control short-term changes in those indicators. (The caveat is that most economists agree that government can affect them in the medium to long-term, although those effects are for the most part going to be trumped by other factors and the president by himself can exert very little control even then without the assistance of Congress and/or the Federal Reserve.)
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Interview by Mike on KPFT (Houston)

 Posted by  Book Related  No Responses »
Mar 202012
 

I gave an interview awhile back with Maida Asofsky, host of the radio program “Give Me Liberty” on Houston’s KPFT 90.7; apparently it aired back on Mar 5, although I just discovered that yesterday. Anyway, I’ve linked to the MP3 download, if you are interested in listening to it.

Voting On What Never Happened

 Posted by  2012 Election, Book Related, Debt and Deficit, Fiscal Issues, Obama Administration  No Responses »
Mar 162012
 

As voters we are often asked to make judgments that we are not really equipped to make. For instance, the ideal balance of threats, military action, and sanctions vies a vie Iran is an incredibly complex problem, even for the minority of Americans who can locate Iran on a map and name it’s dominant religion (Shi’a Islam), ethnicity (Persian), and language (Farsi).

But this November, it appears that voters will be asked to make an even harder decision than that: judge between two alternate versions of American economic performance, neither of which actually happened.

Let’s start with what we can all agree on, at least for the most part. Most Democrats and most Republicans agree that the economy tanked during 2008, that it hit rock-bottom sometime shortly after President Obama was sworn in, and that ever since then it has gotten slowly (if not steadily) better. They also agree that Obama and the then-Democratic Congress passed a series of measures during 2009 that were meant to stimulate the economy, but which also added to the budget deficit (at least in the short-term).

Now here’s where the alternate histories come in.
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Obama’s True but False but (Probably) True Statement

 Posted by  2012 Election, Book Related, Business And Regulation, Environment  No Responses »
Mar 152012
 

There are often no easy answers to complicated issues.

In a speech today, President Obama once again asserted that “the United States has 2% of the world’s oil reserves, but uses 20% of the world’s oil.” The Washington Post’s Fact Checker took on this claim and found that it was “True But False”. If anything, the Fact Checker is understating the complexity of the situation. Let me explain… or try to.

The United States does consume, in any given year, roughly 20% of the oil that is extracted and processed in any given year. This may sound like a lot–and it is. As the Fact Checker notes, the United States has only about 4% of the world’s population.

It is also true that if you look at “proven” oil reserves–that is oil reserves which have been adequately surveyed and for which technology currently exists to extract it–then it is also true that the United States sits on roughly 2% of the world’s oil reserves.

Okay, so Obama is right so far; that’s the “True” part of “True But False”. Now let’s talk about the “False” part.
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Danny on WMFE Radio

 Posted by  Book Related  No Responses »
Mar 142012
 

Danny Oppenheimer just had a great interview with WMFE 90.7, Orlando’s NPR affiliate, about Democracy Despite Itself, so make sure to check it out.

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